Last minute announcement! Join Interact, FU Berlin and Friedrich Ebert Stiftung next Monday at 7pm for a topical discussion of Israel's war in Lebanon, Hezbullah after Nasrallah and the implications of iolent escalation in the Middle East.

14 October 2024

7-9pm

Please register by 11 October 2024 at the latest.

Scenarios and risks of escalation in the Middle East

With Joseph Daher, Meray Maddah, Jannis Grimm, Nils Schmid and Yair Wallach

After nearly a year of cross-border shelling between Israel and the Hezbollah militia, the Israeli army dramatically expanded the war in Lebanon on September 23, 2024. Since then, it has been bombarding large parts of southern and northeastern Lebanon and eventually killed Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut. This marks the beginning of a new era in Lebanon and the entire region. The Israeli Defense Forces are launching daily airstrikes on the southern suburbs of the Lebanese capital, targeting Hezbollah positions across the country, but also civilian targets from the outset. Within two weeks, around 1,500 Lebanese citizens have died—already more than in the entire 2006 Lebanon war. Currently, 1.3 million of Lebanon’s 6 million people are displaced. An end to this catastrophe seems nowhere in sight.

The intense bombardment of Beirut and the beginning of the Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon evoke memories of Israel’s incursion in the late 1970s, which led to a prolonged occupation, immense suffering for the Lebanese population, and countless subsequent conflicts. However, alongside the brutal Israeli military campaign in Gaza, fears are growing in Lebanon of similar widespread destruction. Despite the severe depletion of its political and military leadership, Hezbollah continues to launch rocket attacks on Israel but has also indicated a willingness to negotiate.

The question of whether there is still a diplomatic path out of the escalation of violence is also being discussed in light of Iran’s role and its allies in the so-called "Axis of Resistance." The risk of a direct confrontation between Tel Aviv and Tehran is increasing, as is the potential for a regional conflagration that could overshadow the current dynamics of violence—a scenario with little to gain but much to lose for civilians on all sides.

How is this war in Lebanon being perceived? Has it changed the view of Hezbollah? How is the war changing the balance of power within Lebanon?  Do the Lebanese still have hope for a political solution that could prevent the worst? Or is Lebanon facing a repetition of the Gaza scenario? What are the Israeli government’s medium-term strategic goals with these operations, and what consequences will this have for the crisis-ridden Middle East region?

We would like to discuss these and other questions with you.